No sooner did the United Arab Emirates make a historic decision to normalise relations with Israel than the US spotlight turned to a more significant — and elusive — target: Saudi Arabia.
Jared Kushner, Donald Trump’s son-in-law and the man who helped broker last week’s deal, has set his sights on convincing America’s chief Arab ally to take the landmark step. Yet despite his close relations with Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman, it remains a much tougher ask.
“Saudi Arabia is the game,” said Bruce Riedel, a former CIA officer who specialises in the Gulf kingdom. But with King Salman “a true believer in the Palestinian cause”, it is unlikely to happen any time soon.
Since Mr Trump entered the White House, his son-in-law has forged close relations with a new generation of Gulf leaders: the UAE’s Sheikh Mohammed bin Zayed, and Saudi Arabia’s crown prince. Mr Kushner has shared long late-night talking sessions with Prince Mohammed, and stood by him after intense personal criticism levelled at him in the wake of the 2018 killing of Saudi journalist Jamal Khashoggi.
“I’ve had many discussions now with MBS about . . . [the possible normalisation of relations], and also with King Salman,” Mr Kushner, the US president’s Middle East adviser, told reporters on Monday, and said it would be “very good” for Saudi business and defence. He argued it would also help the Palestinian people.
Prince Mohammed, who is pushing ahead with plans to reform the kingdom’s economy, was perceived to be willing to push the Palestinians to accept the US Middle East peace plan, as part of his efforts to cement his relationship with the Trump administration and with the wider US political establishment, western diplomats and analysts in the region have said.
But he is believed to have been overruled by his father, who is understood to have the final say on some key issues. The king told Palestinian leader Mahmoud Abbas in a phone call in January that the kingdom remained committed to the Palestinian cause and Palestinian rights, according to a readout published by the state news agency.
When Mr Trump in January rolled out his peace plan, which foresees Jerusalem as the Israeli capital and which was rejected by the Palestinians, it was publicly repudiated by King Salman. Even with the close relationship between Mr Kushner and Prince Mohammed, Saudi Arabia was a notable absentee from a flagship economic conference organised by Mr Kushner to support the peace deal.
Saudi leadership in the Islamic world also makes it much less likely the kingdom will follow in the UAE’s footsteps. The kingdom hosts Islam’s two holiest sites and portrays itself as the leader and defender of Sunni Islam. King Salman, whose official title is Custodian of the Two Holy Mosques, told the Organisation of Islamic Cooperation last year that the Palestinian cause remained a core issue and that the kingdom “refuses any measures that touch the historical and legal position of East Jerusalem”. Palestinians want East Jerusalem to be the capital of any future state.
“King Salman has a very strong place in his heart for the Palestinian people and for the cause, and MBS does as well,” Mr Kushner told reporters on Monday. “They do want to see the Palestinian people have a state.”
The Saudi government has yet to publicly express an official position on the UAE-Israel agreement.
A person familiar with Riyadh’s thinking said Saudi Arabia was “very different” to the UAE, despite their close ties.
“It’s smaller and doesn’t have that religious element. What the UAE has to lose is much less than us, and what they have to offer Israel is much less," the person said. “If you ask a 30-year-old Saudi, they may say ‘Why not have relations with Israel? They have great technology and academia.’ But they would care if we actually did because the whole Muslim world would lambast us.”
Two hashtags trending on Saudi Twitter shortly after the UAE announcement reflected polarisation around the decision: opponents of the deal used the hashtag “Gulf citizens against normalisation” while those who support it tweeted under the hashtag “Screw you and your cause”. The latter reflects Saudi nationalism and the perception that Palestinians, some of whom are critical of Saudi policy in the region, are ungrateful for the longstanding support from Riyadh.
Saudi Arabia, like the UAE, is believed to have increased its covert co-operation, particularly in security and intelligence, with Israel in recent years, as it shares the Jewish state’s concerns about Iran’s role in the region. Brian Hook, the US’s Iran envoy, told the Financial Times that “Iranian aggression” had helped unite some countries in the face of a common enemy.
A senior Trump administration official has tipped Bahrain and Oman as most likely to normalise relations with Israel next, with Morocco also on the cards. Israeli foreign minister Gabi Ashkenazi spoke with his Omani counterpart on Monday about the need to strengthen relations between the two countries.
Mike Singh, who led Middle East affairs at the US National Security Council under President George W Bush, said Bahrain, which is dependent on financial assistance from the UAE and Saudi Arabia, would want to negotiate their terms and first gauge regional reaction to the UAE initiative. He said Oman might also hesitate to antagonise Iran.
Other countries outside the region, such as Indonesia and Malaysia, might also consider initiating diplomatic relations with Israel, Mr Singh said. Israeli officials have also touted Sudan as a possible contender.
A senior administration official told the FT that “no one knows” if Saudi Arabia would take the breakthrough step. “Each step increases the confidence this is the direction the region needs to go,” said the official.
Most remain sceptical that the Saudis will follow the UAE’s lead. “There is no incentive to do it with annexation [of occupied territories] already off the table [as part of the UAE/Israel deal],” said Mr Riedel.
Additional reporting by Andrew England in London and Ilan Ben Zion in Jerusalem
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Saudi Arabia the big target in US efforts to smooth Israel relations - Financial Times
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