Voters in Missouri, Michigan, Kansas, Arizona and Washington state hit the polls, either voting in-person or submitting mail-in ballots, which have increased dramatically during the pandemic. But this week, there weren't systematic failures. There weren't jaw-dropping lines at polling sites. And news outlets even projected winners Tuesday night in some of the tight races.
There are a few reasons why Tuesday's primaries didn't devolve into the chaotic and protracted debacles that plagued recent elections in New York, Kentucky, Georgia and elsewhere. Experts tell CNN that election officials are learning from earlier fumbles, and that the laws in states that voted this week make it easier to count the votes faster -- and for networks to project winners.
"In one state, we might be able to call a 5-point race, and in another state, we won't," said Joe Lenski, co-founder of Edison Research, which provides election results and exit polls to CNN and other major outlets. "It's all because the states are handling the challenges of increased mail-in voting in different ways. Some states are handling it well. Some states, frankly, are not."
Fast results in Missouri
Look at Missouri. In one of the most surprising upsets of the night, Democratic Rep. Lacy Clay, a 20-year incumbent, was defeated by a progressive challenger, Cori Bush. CNN, the Associated Press and other outlets projected the race Tuesday night, even though Bush only prevailed by a narrow 3 percentage points.
And on Wednesday morning, CNN projected that Missouri voters passed a constitutional amendment to expand Medicaid as part of the Affordable Care Act. The amendment won by about 7 points.
Recent elections with much wider margins went uncalled for weeks. But Missouri kept most of its postal voting restrictions on the books, limiting the influx of mail ballots. A spokeswoman from the Missouri Secretary of State's office told CNN about 84% of votes were still cast in-person.
Missouri law also lets election officials start processing mail ballots five days before the election, lightening their load and speeding up the publicly reported results on election night. Other states prevent election workers from touching mail ballots until the polls close, slowing the process of verifying signatures and implementing other safeguards against fraud, which is extremely rare.
Missouri Secretary of State Jay Ashcroft issued a press release Wednesday praising election officials and poll workers for the "smooth primary election," which he called a "success." It was a far cry from the finger-pointing and recriminations that followed problematic primaries earlier this year.
Further simplifying things, Missouri is one of the states that only accepts absentee ballots that arrive by Election Day, as opposed to ballots that are postmarked on Election Day and arrive later. This makes it easier to count all the votes quickly, and for networks to project winners, because it means election officials know exactly how many ballots arrived by the deadline, and don't have to wait to find out how many are still in the mail.
Experience paying off
Some states implemented policies that had positive results. Others with longstanding traditions of heavy mail-in voting relied on their experience to deal with this year's surge.
Washington state has conducted its elections entirely by mail for many years, and Tuesday was no different. In Arizona, a majority of voters typically vote by mail, and state laws make it easy for local officials to quickly release massive batches of results immediately after the polls close.
Michigan held its presidential primary in March, so the down-ballot primaries on Tuesday were a second bite at the apple. To prepare, the state enacted new laws making it easier for local governments to count absentee ballots. This paid off Tuesday in Oakland County, the state's second-largest county, where a 150-member panel quickly tallied all the absentee ballots, per local reports.
But vote-counting continued into Wednesday in Wayne County, home to Detroit. Unofficial results on the county website indicated that 7% of precincts still haven't been reported. Turnout in Detroit could be the deciding factor for how Michigan votes in the presidential race this year.
There were scattered reports in Michigan of absentee ballots arriving in voters' mailboxes very close to Election Day, making it difficult for voters to meet the deadline. In Michigan, absentee ballots are only counted if they arrive at the local clerk's office before 8 p.m. on Election Day.
"Elections are systems. They are big and they are complex," said Drew McCoy, president of election-calling website Decision Desk HQ. "Normal people see the tip of the iceberg. But there is a lot that goes on underneath it, and if you change one thing, that could have a big impact.
Exemplifying those pitfalls, Decision Desk HQ incorrectly projected that Clay won his primary in Missouri. It wasn't the first time late-breaking absentee ballots changed the trajectory of a race during the pandemic: The AP retracted two calls in Georgia's congressional primaries in June.
"We missed some of the signs that we shouldn't have missed," McCoy told CNN.
Delays still likely in November
Many of the high-profile races were called on Tuesday, but a handful of congressional and state-level races still haven't been called by any major news outlet as of Wednesday night. And some primaries held earlier in the summer are still being disputed after weeks of wrangling, like in New York.
President Donald Trump seized on these delays to claim that elections were being "rigged," and recently suggested it could take "years" until the winner of the presidential election is declared.
Election experts quickly rejected Trump's speculation. But they say there is an "expectations gap" between what the public expects from Election Night and what might happen in November. There will likely be delays, which isn't indicative of fraud, but can lead to suspicion nonetheless.
"We feel better about results when we get finality earlier," said David Becker, founder of the Center for Election Innovation and Research. "It's one of the things President Trump is exploiting with his idea that we need to know on election night. Because it feels right. But if you think about it, it's irrational to think we can count and validate 150 million ballots in a few hours."
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August 06, 2020 at 07:55AM
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This week's 'smooth' primaries almost felt normal. Here's why. - CNN
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