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NASDAQ COMPOSITE: SMOOTH SAILING OR ICEBERG AHEAD? (0900 EST/1400 GMT)
Since hitting lows in late January, a number of Nasdaq internal measures have shown marked improvement. With this, the Nasdaq Composite (.IXIC) has cruised to a 5%-gain from its Jan. 27 closing low.
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Indeed, if the Composite has left its worst behind, broad Nasdaq strength is likely to be a key aspect of any rally.
Of note, the Nasdaq McClellan Summation, which is derived data on advancing and declining issues, plunged to a low of -7,229 on Jan. 31. This was this measure's weakest reading since October 1998 read more :
With that low, the Summation slipped just below its late-2008 trough (-6,896), and a support line from late-2012 (~7,100). The line contained weakness in late 2018 and early 2020, essentially coinciding with major lows in the Composite.
Since its Jan. 31 low, the Summation has improved to -6,901 and in so doing has reclaimed both the support line, and its 10-day moving average (DMA) (-6,943). read more
One characteristic of the Summation's bullish turns off the support line in both late 2018 and early 2020 was that it did not look back. The measure improved 40-straight trading days (tds) off its late-December 2018 low and 35-straight tds off its late-March 2020 trough. This as the IXIC embarked on major advances.
The Summation has now risen four of the past five tds, including two-straight gains into Monday's close.
Therefore, it may be critical for the Summation to now mount a sustained rise. Breaking its recent low at -7,229 can see its bear-trend resume. In which case, the IXIC will be at risk of sinking again.
The measure's record low occurred in September 1998 at -8,905.
(Terence Gabriel)
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Terence Gabriel is a Reuters market analyst. The views expressed are his own
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